Black Swans, Grey Rhinos, and Dragon Kings: the Next Great Challenges for Emergency Management
As individuals, each of us have our own perspective in how we see and think about the world – this is called a paradigm or worldview. As emergency managers, the way we view future risk shapes our actions and may ultimately determine just how successful we are – we must become more adept at perceiving if we are to truly remain effective at protecting.
In this session, we will assess the potential for viewing future risk through a different paradigm. The term “black swan” was made popular by Nassim Taleb and describes a significant event that surprises everyone because our outlook on what was possible is too narrow – an example being 9/11. A “grey rhino” event is a highly probable and understood (but ignored) threat – for example, a major earthquake in the Pacific Northwest. The term “dragon king” refers to an event that is extremely large or has an outsized impact and is statistically an outlier – Three Mile Island serves as an example here.
Why do disasters usually take us by surprise? Can we learn to anticipate even “impossible” events? How will be manage the unmanageable? Come help find the answers for questions we are all just starting to ask.
About the Presenter
Christopher Godley was recently appointed as the Director of Emergency Management for Stanford University where he leads the University’s comprehensive emergency management programs including preparedness, business continuity, response, and recovery. Previously, Chris led the creation of the new Department of Emergency Management in Sonoma County, California following their devastating 2017 firestorms.
A Certified Emergency Manager, Chris has worked in Northern California local governments for more than 25 years in the counties of Sonoma and Marin as well as the City of San Jose. As a consultant, he managed a national team for 5 years serving government and the private sector.
Chris has served in various leadership positions in response to more than three dozen local, state and federal disasters. A UCLA grad, Chris holds a master’s in Emergency Services Administration from Cal State University, Long Beach and he is a 20-year veteran of the U.S. Army Reserve and National Guard.